As Cold War relics in Indian diplomacy fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine, it is only a matter of time before New Delhi comes under serious pressure from its QUAD partners. to change its neutral stance on Moscow.
Western media, citing Biden administration officials, said Russia had asked China for military equipment to push its invasion of Ukraine. Reports citing other US officials say there were signs of Russian special military operations running out of unspecified weapons after the war began nearly 20 days ago.
Given that US intelligence was aware of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is quite obvious that Washington knows exactly what material help Russian President Vladimir Putin has requested from his strongman colleague in Beijing. But the fact that Russian forces are short of supplies, spare parts and oil has given the Narendra Modi government pause as India still depends on military spares and supplies for its frontline Russian-sourced equipment. in all three services. Russian T-90 tanks, Su-30MKI fighters and the INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier under maintenance all depend on the Moscow-based original equipment manufacturer. India’s biggest fear is the severance of the spare parts supply chain after massive Western sanctions against Russia and Moscow’s diversion of equipment to the Ukrainian front.
With Ukraine having a history of nationalism in the western parts of the country and Russia still unable to capture major cities, the war shows no sign of complete victory for Putin’s “Z” forces. And Moscow’s problems will get worse by the day as the West injects high-tech weapons into Ukraine, boosting the morale of the defending troops. Despite the fog of war, Russian armor losses are quite evident aside from Moscow’s inability to achieve air dominance over Ukrainian skies. This led Ukraine to use Turkish Bayraktar TB 2 drones to eliminate Russian armored columns at will.
Experienced Russian observers remember the confidence with which the old Red Army entered Afghanistan in 1979, expecting to conquer Kabul within days. The Afghan war ultimately proved to be a quagmire for the Red Army with armed jihadists based in Pakistan and the United States ensuring a humiliating return home a decade later.
As Cold War relics in Indian diplomacy fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine, it is only a matter of time before New Delhi comes under serious pressure from its QUAD partners. to change its neutral stance on Moscow. India does not have to answer to anyone in Europe for its position after explaining its position to France. European powers like the UK and Germany maintained radio silence when the Chinese military transgressed in Ladakh in May 2020.
However, material decoupling from Russia is complex and will take years although Prime Minister Modi is constantly pushing the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” agenda, its translation on the ground will take time. And that too if the military bureaucracy, the PSUs and the R&D establishment do not place any obstacles. With the United States being hit by Iranian missiles in Erbil, Houthi rebels firing ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates from Yemen, China belligerent in the South China Sea above Taiwan, and the Russia underestimates Ukrainians, the world is becoming uncertain day by day.
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